CFB Group of 5 Season Win Totals !!

Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk College Football Group of Five betting.

0:05 – 0:31 Opening motivational speech emphasizing speed, defensive swarming, and physical dominance — “Out-block, out-tackle, out-hit, out-hustle” — with a repeated call to “leave no doubt tonight.”

0:31 – 1:19 Griffin Warner Introduces the College Football Podcast episode focusing on Group of Five teams, following a prior episode on the Power Four. Announces a promo code and a college football contest, noting the goal is to identify season-long betting opportunities. Date: Tuesday,

1:45 – 2:33 Griffin Warner Explains that Group of Five games offer strong betting opportunities. Begins with Army (West Point) win total: Over 7.5 at +110, Under 7.5 at -140 on BetOnline.

2:35 – 4:41 Lonte Smith — Army Analysis

2023 Recap: 12–2, AAC champions, led by QB Bryson Daly (dark horse Heisman) and RB Kanye Udo.

Losses: Daly to graduation, Udo to Arizona State, two Joe Moore Award-winning offensive tackles, best defensive player to Georgia.

Returning Talent: Six of top ten tacklers; LB corps Miller & Thomas praised.

Concerns: Offensive drop-off, new OL coach, challenging schedule (Tulane, UTSA, Navy, Air Force).

Projection: 7–5 ceiling, 6–6 floor → leans Under 7.5. 4:41 – 6:08 Griffin Warner & Lonte Smith — Schedule Talk

Army’s 2024 slate includes K-State, North Texas, Tulane, Air Force, Navy (in Baltimore). Lonte favors Navy among service academies, citing better returning production and depth. 7:16 – 14:52 Western Kentucky (C-USA)

Odds: Over 7.5 (-125), Under 7.5 (-105).

2023: 8–6 record.

Roster: Only 3 starters return (1 offense, 2 defense). Poor 2023 rush defense (224 YPG).

Key Additions: QB Maverick McIver (Abilene Christian, 3,500+ yds, 37 TDs), OC Rick Bowie (former Abilene OC). WR Matt Henry (1,100+ yds at Western Illinois).

Concerns: OL continuity, defensive holes, rush defense.

Schedule: Winnable home games; road tests at Toledo, Delaware, Missouri State. Projection: ~8.6 wins → leans Over 7.5.

15:43 – 20:22 Bowling Green (MAC)

Odds: Over 6.5 (+200), Under 6.5 (-260).

2023: 7–6 (6–2 MAC).

Changes: New HC Eddie George; ranked 130th in returning production; offense loses top TE hero Fanning (drafted by Browns).

Defense: Loses 13 of top 15 tacklers but adds FCS standouts (including Eddie George’s son).

Schedule: Lafayette, Cincinnati, Liberty, Louisville early; Toledo and Buffalo at home.

Projection: Depth concerns, brutal early stretch → Under (expects ~4–8). 20:53 – 25:10 Air Force (MWC)

Odds: Over/Under 6.5 (-115).

2023: 5–7 after starting 1–7, finished on 4-game win streak.

Roster: 9 returning starters (6 offense, 3 defense). QB battle (Johnson favored). OL returns 3 starters plus 2 with experience.

Defense: Allowed 23 PPG; DL led by Peyton Zurch.

Schedule: Bucknell, Boise, Navy, Wyoming, Army, UNLV, SJSU, UConn.

Projection: Manageable slate, strong finish expected → Over 6.5 (7–8 wins). 25:38 – 31:06 Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)

Odds: Over 7.5 (+130), Under (-160).

2023: 8–5.

Roster: 10 starters return (5 offense, 5 defense). QB J.C. French (2,500+ yds, 17 TDs, 11 INTs, 66% comp). Deep WR corps; strong OL with most combined starts in Sun Belt.

Defense: Needs rush D improvement; strong secondary led by Chance Gamble.

Schedule: Fresno, USC, Jacksonville State, JMU, Coastal, ODU, Marshall.

Projection: Favors in most conference games except JMU → Over 7.5 (floor 8 wins). 31:07 – 38:35 Playoff/Long-shot Discussion

No strong playoff contenders from teams covered; JMU strong but blocked by JMU matchup for Georgia Southern.

Boise State (2–1 to make playoffs) downgraded without RB Ashton Jeanty.

Long-shot pick: South Florida (33–1) if QB Byron Brown stays healthy; avoid betting until after tough Miami/Florida stretch. 38:36 – End Best Bet: Army Under 7.5 wins. Rationale: Loss of QB, RB, two elite tackles, new OL coach, tough schedule, regression from 12–2 2023 season.

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