That Sounds Incredibly Boring: Keith Teare's Vision of our Jobless AI Future
Keen On America
“You can’t be confident about human decision-making. You can be confident on the potential of technology. Humans are quite capable of making both wrong and bad decisions.” — Keith Teare
Is a jobless AI future really something to celebrate? That Was the Week publisher Keith Teare certainly thinks so. His editorial “Civilization: What Is Worth Doing” this week imagines a future in which nobody has to work unless they choose to, basic necessities are no longer scarce, leisure time is abundant, and governance fades to near-invisibility.
I’m not so sure. As I told Keith, “That sounds incredibly boring. I don’t want to live in that kind of society.”
The conversation this week has been civilizational. A few days ago, the podcaster Patrick Wyman came on the show to argue that history is mostly unintentional and unexpected. But Keith says civilization is broadly linear and tends, if not toward justice, toward progress. Wyman says civilizations are plural and never inevitable.
“Why History Keeps Happening” is how Wyman put it. The end and the beginning of history are, thus, delusional. We are, then, always in the middle of history. That’s the wisdom missing from all the ridiculous hysteria about AI. It’s just one chapter in our history. The promise that AI will create mass abundance is as somnolent as the fear it will wipe out our civilization. Pass the Soma.
Five Takeaways
• Civilization: Singular or Plural? Wyman’s argument: civilizations are plural, nonlinear, full of failure and unintended consequence. Keith’s counter: civilization — singular — is the long arc of human progress collectively, broadly linear over two hundred years. Both are right at different scales. Andrew’s instinct: we’re in a nonlinear moment masquerading as progress. Keith’s: we’re at a fork in the road. That much they agree on. The more interesting question is who controls which direction the fork takes.
• Paul Ehrlich and the Limits of Forecasting: Norman Lewis’s cautionary tale: Paul Ehrlich predicted in the 1970s that population growth would exhaust the Earth’s resources within a generation. He was famously, totally wrong. Andrew’s application: most people are probably wrong about AI right now — both the doomers and the optimists. The future is not the thing you think you’re heading toward. The Wyman principle: history keeps happening in directions nobody predicted.
• The Pyramid of Change: Keith’s model for how history gets made. Agents of change form a pyramid. At the top: a small number of people who have a much larger influence on what happens than everyone at the base. Most people receive change rather than make it. Those who step outside the norms and make things happen — those are the ones who make history. The question of our moment: who is at the top of the pyramid? And do they share your values? Or anyone else’s?
• AI Panic in the Media: Reflecting, Not Forming: Nirit Weiss-Blatt’s research into ten studies on AI coverage: the media is overwhelmingly negative. Keith’s reading: media reflects opinion rather than forming it. Negativity around AI is a reasonable reaction to not knowing. When you don’t know, you can believe anything, and most of the available influence is negative. If AI delivers real benefits, opinion will change, and media will follow. Andrew’s reading: the cause is genuine uncertainty, not media panic.
• Keith’s Utopia: “That Sounds Incredibly Boring”: Keith’s vision: everyone eats, everyone is warm, nobody has to work unless they choose to, leisure time is abundant, paid labour replaced by a society that provides for all, governance shrinking toward irrelevance as satisfaction rises. Andrew’s verdict: “that sounds incredibly boring. I don’t want to live in that kind of society.” The Germans, Keith notes, will still be putting their towels out at dawn to claim the beach. Some scarcities will always remain.
About the Guest
Keith Teare is a British-American entrepreneur, investor, and publisher of the That Was the Week newsletter. He is a co-founder of TechCrunch and Andrew’s regular TWTW co-host.
References:
• That Was the Week: “Civilization: What Is Worth Doing” by Keith Teare.
• Norman Lewis, “The Future Is Not Scarce,” Nervous.
• Nirit Weiss-Blatt, “What 10 Studies Revealed About AI Panic in the Media.”
• Ezra Klein, “Why the AI Job Apocalypse Probably Won’t Happen,” The New York Times.
• Episode 2897: Patrick Wyman on Lost Worlds — the companion episode on civilization’s unintended consequences, directly referenced in this conversation.
About Keen On America
Nobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen. In Keen On America, Andrew brings his pointed Transatlantic wit to making sense of the United States — hosting daily interviews about the history and future of this now venerable Republic. With nearly 2,900 episodes since the show launched on TechCrunch in 2010, Keen On America is the most prolific intellectual interview show in the history of podcasting.
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